UKRAINE

While the war is raging on in Ukraine, Russia is suffering significant defeats on the Northern Front and is being pushed back as a part of Ukraine’s “strategy.”

We should be aware of the possible future scenarios that can affect our livelihoods here in the United States. Those who have been investing and following the markets saw that effect last month. I have had the unfortunate experience of studying the behaviors of autocratic regimes firsthand, and the way I foresee the war going, as far as the west is concerned, are these scenarios from most likely to least likely:

Putin goes out with a whimper, and things return to somewhat normal: The most likely something I see happening, the way the war is going, is Russia getting pushed back to their original borders, potentially including Crimea, and then a long defensive skirmish on the Ukrainian border while Putin hopes Russian citizens get used to the new normal and the new Iron Curtain. Finland and Sweden will join NATO without much fanfare, and eventually, war will die down years down the line. The Russian media admitted to the government’s faults when it could no longer hurt the government’s image.

Sanctions Work and Russian Government Capitulates: Despite its iron grip on the population, there will be a public disorder if food stops coming. Naturally, such regimes prioritize paying and supporting their armed forces to remain in power a lot like a warlord. A brief time of discontent can put the government on the defensive and make them negotiate ways of saving face and reaching a compromise. Instead of annexing those regions, as Russia originally wanted, the local populace could gain some degree of autonomy. Those regions can return to the way they used to be before the Meydan Protests. Still live and speak Russian but am politically part of Ukraine. It would be likely that Ukraine would join NATO and possibly the EU, while Russia would start a long rebuild of its international relations.

Escalation due to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, losses in Ukraine: If Russia fails to hold its currently declared goals, it is very likely “The Special Operation” will be escalated into a full-blown war. This is important since this will allow the Russian government to start drafts and justify more extreme measures to continue the fight. It is also possible, with this newfound workforce (but lacking in materials that have not stopped the red army before), that Russia will make incursions into Finland to prevent them from joining NATO.

However, I do not foresee this escalating into nuclear war for various reasons; even any escalation is unlikely, given the current circumstances.